How would you like to be elected governor of Kansas by about 46,000 votes on Tuesday and on Friday learn that you’re going to have $306.4 million more to spend than you thought?
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| Martin Hawver |
Doesn’t get much better than that, does it? Well, that’s exactly what has happened to Gov.-elect Laura Kelly, who by the way beat Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach who pledged during his campaign to start cutting taxes quickly if elected.
Well, Kelly isn’t talking tax cuts, she’s talking investment in schools, expanding Medicaid and balancing the budget without new taxes—and that was before she heard about the $306 million windfall which the Consensus Revenue Estimating Group unveiled Friday. The CREG meets twice a year, in November and April, to predict upcoming state revenues.
This might be an interesting four years ahead with a governor who wants to first take care of the state’s responsibilities that have been avoided the past several years before talking about tax cuts. The new money is good, of course, but we’re not yet constitutionally “adequate” on state aid to schools and are making little progress in restoring money that has been “swept” out of agency budgets for highway construction, pensions and such.
No, we’re not looking for Kelly to start handing out tax cuts while she’s waiting for her stationery and business cards to be printed up.
In fact, even before that $306 million windfall, Kelly was talking about waiting until next April’s Consensus Revenue Estimate before giving much thought to tax cuts—after she’s nailed down the spending necessary to restore state government duties.
Part of that, of course, is her experience as a member of the Senate Ways and Means Committee—which makes the appropriations and cuts necessary to balance the budget. It’s been more cuts than appropriations in the past few years, and she’s made clear that restoration of services is first in line, ahead of tax cuts.
What’s it mean? Well, from a Statehouse viewpoint, it probably means a rather complicated “State of the State” message when lawmakers come back to town in mid-January. She’s a details person, likely to talk more about programs that need to be rebuilt or financed adequately than new programs that Republicans tend to spend a lot of time trying to think up catchy names (or acronyms) for.
Don’t look for flash.
Now, remember that she’s going to face an overwhelmingly Republican legislature that is probably going to be more interested in cutting taxes than rebuilding the state payroll of social workers and helping local school districts rebuild their staff of teachers and aides.
Key there is for the governor to convince those conservatives in the Legislature that the not-very-flashy care of the poor and ill and their children are the best way to improve the state before cutting taxes.
Tax cuts? They will probably start with the sales tax on food. It’s a big deal for the poor who see the cost of a can of beans at 9% or 10% (depending on local sales taxes) more than the shelf price before they get it out of the store and into the kitchen. Oh, and it also means that those steaks and salmon are cheaper, too, but it’s not an afford-it or not decision for more prosperous Kansans.
That $306 million? Well, it gives Kelly some negotiating room, enough spare cash to bargain a dab of tax cut in return for the social service, highway construction and health-care expenditures she’d like to make.
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But all that new direction in state spending that Kelly proposes will ultimately be keyed off of the makeup of the Legislature, and whether that top-heavy Republican majority in both chambers is solid enough to pass veto-proof legislation.
We’ll see. Check back in April…
Syndicated by Hawver News Company LLC of Topeka; Martin Hawver is publisher of Hawver's Capitol Report—to learn more about this nonpartisan statewide political news service, visit the website at www.hawvernews.com
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